Things are heating up in Bordeaux, France, with the tasting sessions for the primeurs, or new wines, starting today (30 March). Wednesday I’ll be joining 1,000 other journalists and wine writers who descend on the area, for three days of tastings and talking to producers.

Meanwhile, Bordeaux winemakers are taking advantage of the wine world’s eyes turned on them to share their news. Today’s headline: Château Lafite, one of the most prestigious of the region’s producers, is scrambling to get a share of the Chinese market by taking a stake in Penglai, on China’s Shandong Peninsula, where 41,000 hectares of vine are growing. The Guardian, which carries the story, says China is expected to become “one of the world’s biggest wine producers over the next 50 years and European wine estates are keen to get a foothold in the latest new-world wine trend.”

Hmmm. I read New World here as mass production, of which there already appears to be enough, if wine consumption statistics tell us anything. I’ve had some truly bad wine from China, although that was in 1985 when the country’s production was limited pretty much to one red and one white. You could almost understand why the Chinese preferred their potent rice firewater. And I’ve had some mediocre Chinese wine since then. I am sure China can learn to make excellent wines, just as it’s learned to make so many other products well.

What it needs to do first is grow a generation of wine drinkers, who are able to judge quality and create a home market. There is evidence in the cities that among young professionals wine is chic: they are concerned about health, enough so to trade in the national sport of hard liquor tippling. But it will take more than trendiness to build that market. The Swiss, for example, drink 40 litres per capita a year while the Chinese drink 0.91 litres per capita. This is potentially a growth industry, with those kind of numbers, but it assumes wine will make sense in China.

Will it?

Last week I matching regional foods and wines with Raymond Paccot, winemaker from Fechy, Vaud, who pointed out that good wines are traditionally developed to accompany food from an area, and that vocation is what keeps the winemaker focused on getting the wine just right. If this holds true for China, maybe some good wines will appear by 2020, but what a surprise these wines could be for the rest of the world if they are made for the home market, designed to go well with Chinese food. I’m willing to drink to that possibility, but I’m not convinced it will happen.